What is Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning is a process I use pretty often. I personally use it for my goals but its main use is actually for making business plans.
It’s important to understand that the world has many uncertainties in it and it’s impossible to plan and account for everything that can happen in the future. What we can do is make the best possible plan for most scenarios.
What this means is that we have to come up with as many different scenarios possible and use the plan that will be successful to an extent in the most of them.
How do we go about doing this?
1) First we need to think of what the issue is. What is the goal that we are trying to achieve and what are the possible external threats or opportunities to that goal.
2) Then we must, to our best ability, figure out which one of these external forces can be predetermined. This refers to something that is pretty much predictable.
3) For the remaining external forces we need to identify which are must crucial and will have the biggest effect on this goal.
4) Lastly, we look at all scenarios of these forces in the future and pick the strategy or plan that will allow us to be successful most often.
Once we implement the strategy in our lives we also need to look out for first signs of something going wrong. This means that if we see that a certain driver or force is turning out one way and we need to change our plan, we must do it as soon as possible.
Hope this helps!